Definition of the operational and strategic environment

Structured and in-depth intelligence analysis of the internal and external environment, client's objectives, assets, stakeholders, operational, interest and influence perimeters, to ensure that each decision is aligned with the priorities.

Using structured analytical techniques, including: Starbursting, Mind Maps, Key Assumptions Check, Deception Detection, Structured Analogies, Cross-Impact Matrix, Multiple Hypothesis Generation, Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH - Pherson-Heuer method), Quadrant Crunching, Key Drivers Generation, Indicators Generation - validation & Evaluation.

Using OSINT: Open Source INTelligence techniques by searching, collecting, and analyzing data and news of interest drawn from open, public, and freely accessible sources. Search engines and social media on the Internet with advanced techniques using search operators and employing professional data mining tools.

Using IMINT techniques: IMagery INTelligence, with information gathering activities by analyzing aerial or satellite photographs, e.g., on the Sentinel-hub EO-Browser3 platform of the ESA Copernicus project, utilizing Sentinel-2 satellites.

Identification of threats through proactive evaluation with inductive and deductive methods, covering all operational, strategic, and compliance aspects, preventing surprises and preparing for challenges.

Action on the Risk Register by grouping risks by affinity and triggering events (triggers), as well as extrapolating risks deemed to have negligible impact on the project at the moment. These will not be removed but placed on a ‘Watch List’ for easy retrieval and periodic verification.

- Quantitative risk analysis with non-probabilistic techniques

Quantitative analysis, or ‘measurement’ of the elements constituting the risk impact, namely the vulnerability and exposure index, to which we must add: “Sensitivity” which will examine: the project team’s experience in handling risks of this type, client perception level (EMV – Expected Monetary Value), visibility.

Extension/Propagation of impact across the project network based on the interconnection and amplification between individual risks using intelligence techniques: Cross Impact Matrix.

High occurrence index (high frequency).

Urgency index

- Treatment Strategy and Risk Response Planning

Development of response plans tailored to mitigate, transfer, accept or avoid risks, optimizing costs and improving operational efficiency.

- Contingency Plan & Events

- Contingency Reserve

- Fallback Plan

A ‘Plan B’ should be created in case the risk response strategies prove ineffective.

- Execution of the risk management plan

Structured and integrated implementation of risk treatment actions, ensuring that each measure is applied promptly and in a coordinated manner.

- Continuous monitoring and control

Regular verification and adaptation of risk management strategies to respond to internal and external changes, ensuring that the organization is always one step ahead of threats.

- Continuous improvement and strategic feedback

Reviewing performance and the risk management process to identify improvement opportunities and continually strengthen business resilience.

- Residual Risk Auditing

Residual risk should be broken down into its smallest components, re-identified through structured intelligence analysis, evaluated, analyzed, and subjected to the ‘Risk Treatment & Response Planning’ process.

Multi-Criteria Decision Making: using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique. This core competency enables the determination of priorities in decision-making scenarios involving complex risks, operational theaters with diverse sensitive targets evaluated across multiple criteria, and the high dislocation of sensitive assets/targets.

Employing cindynics science, which differs from traditional risk management disciplines that focus primarily on probabilistic measurements. Cindynics adopts a qualitative-quantitative index approach, translating the psychological, cultural, organizational, and structural mechanisms of communication and negotiation between individuals that influence risk perception and sizing. This methodological framework is at its best when dealing with new scenarios without historical precedents, commonly referred to as ‘black swans’.

Fish-bone Type Cause-Effect Analysis: utilizing the Ishikawa method for comprehensive cause-and-effect analysis, alongside process mapping and management, and stakeholder classification using the Salience model.

Multidisciplinary and Interdisciplinary Analysis: an extensive examination of the perpetrators, criminal behavior, and the vulnerabilities of the organization subject to threats.

Psychological Reconstruction: an analysis aimed at reconstructing the mental state of the offender by exploring the underlying reasons that led to the criminal action. This includes studying the precursor drivers to the criminal event, as well as psycho-physical and environmental trends that may have induced the individual to engage in deviant and/or antisocial acts, such as burglary, theft, vandalism, etc.

Clinical Condition Analysis: an investigation into potential clinical conditions of dependency or pathologies associated with the crime, alongside non-pathological conditions related to cultural, social aspects, and affiliations with organized groups or gangs. More broadly, this encompasses the criminological profile of the offender.